Recession Outlook Grim
Most analysts agree that the dollar’s rally in online forex trading throughout the fall was bound to be ephemeral, and with 2009 underway, the EUR/USD climb back upwards has begun. In December 2008, the dollar was up almost 20% against a basket of currencies, but since then, the weakening forex trend has taken hold as the economy continues to worsen on rising unemployment numbers that reached a 26-year high last month, a still-soft home market, volatile stocks, and the increased risk of deflation.
A UCLA Anderson Forecast report in mid-December said that although crude oil prices have dropped dramatically, the resultant fall in the absolute level of consumer prices is likely to do damage to the GDP in the next three quarters, causing it to shrink by 4.1%, 3.4%, and 0.8% respectively. The report also predicts that spike in unemployment will continue through 2009, hitting a projected 8.5% in December 2009.